August 29, 2005

Businesses should plan for Avian flu

by Brian Turner

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Canadian bank BNO Nesbitt-Burns has released a PDF report on the prudence of stock market investors to consider the potential impact of an Avian Flu epidemic on long-term investment cycles.

It underlines a few key points - namely, that according to the World Health Organisation (WHO), an Avian Flu epidemic is not a possility, but an inevitability.

The actual global impact on human health is as yet unknown - so far it has been relatively easy to kill transmission in a healthy population, and even should it become more aggressive in its spread, such a form may not be so virulent as current strains.

However, a key point raised is that the so-called Spanish Flu of 1918, which is estimated to have killed around 25-100 million people globally, did not target the weak and infirm, but instead the healthy.

At infection, the body was sent into a cytokine storm, in which the body’s own immunological defences are unleased without control against the body’s own tissues, resulting in the destruction of the lungs especially. The healthier the body, the stronger its autoimmune response against itself.

The most virulent form of Avian Flu so far is designated the reference title of H5N1. It was first isolated and identified in South Africa in 1961, but it wasn’t until 1997 that it hit the Hong Kong bird markets, infecting 18 people and killing 6. It returned in 2003.

One of the big problems is that viruses are prone to mutation and can even swap genes between species. In a closed environment over the long-term this isn’t a cause for so much concern as the system reaches equilibrium - but H5N1 has been carried around the world in migratory birds, resulting in exposure to an increasing number of variables it can adapt and mutate to include.

It’s not just humans that are at risk either - as a zoonotic disease it can infect and be carried by a range of animals. In 2003, Thailand saw nearly half of it’s captive tiger population destroyed by the virus. Chickens face 100% mortality.

Identification of human cases has proved problematic, partly because like the town mayor in Jaws, many organisations have feared that being too open about Avian Flu deaths could have serious damaging economic impact. China is conspicuously the only country in South East Asia to not have reported any official cases of Avian Flu, despite reporting mass deaths in wild bird populations and being otherwise surrounded by known cases.

So far in total only 118 cases of human infection have been officially recorded. These resulted in 57 deaths.

Should Avian Flu ever turn into a global pandemic that kills millions of people, it will likely have a profound effect on the personal, social, political, and economic elements of gobal society, the size of which will be proportional to the impact of such a disease.

The point is not so much that we should panic, as much as be aware not simply of the possible impact of such a disease, but also of how we can as best limit our own vulnerabilities to it.

BNO Nesbitt-Burns has made a start to warn investors to factor a pendemic into long-term investment planning, and also notes that certain areas such as life assurance companies and broadband suppliers could prove to be especially vulnerable stocks for the longer term.

Business can also prepare, by ensuring that staff are trained in administrating key areas, so in the event of extensive staff shortages caused by a pandemic, business protocols that need to be prioritised for can remain operational.

This should not least include basic operations such as regular back-ups of company data, and points of communication rather than sales be left open, to encourage consumer confidence.

Even if only being able to allow for basic operations leaves companies feeling like they are treading water in a pandemic, at least that it is better than sinking. And as any pandemic can be over within months, it is only a short period in which to have to be prepared for.

Ultimately, the impact of a global pandemic of Avian Flu will not be measured by the death tolls, but by the effects on everyday life. The more effectively that businesses can do their part to set up basic safeguards against such events, then the least detrimentally Avian Flu may be seen to have impacted us.

Because as the WHO clearly underlines, it is coming.

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